Pathways to Specific Warming Levels [WP2]

These new Pathways to Specific Warming Levels (SWLs) will inform the experiments of Global and Regional Climate modelling [WP3] and Biophysical Impacts [WP4], and Risk Management of Tipping Points [WP9]. Input from stakeholders is important in this Work Package to better understand which regional targets and combinations of targets are of most concern. We are providing clear information on the timing of potential future climate changes and socio-economic narratives with particular detail on future development of the energy sector. We are characterising uncertainty in the times at which existing climate model simulations reach specific warming levels (and levels of other relevant targets such as forcing, CO2 concentration and sea level rise. We are improving the consistency between the treatment of climate in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and state-of-the-art global climate models, and assess the impact of this on policy. We are estimating alternative greenhouse gas emissions, concentrations, and forcing pathways that lead to similar Specific Warming Levels, including clear narratives on aspects of the economic and technical feasibility of these pathways. We are calculating the effect on the timing of reaching specific climate targets of additional biogeochemical feedbacks not typically included in the current generation of complex Earth System Models (ESMs) or Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).

 

  1. Characterise uncertainty in the times at which existing climate model simulations reach Specific Warming Levels (SWLs) and levels of other relevant targets such as forcing, CO2 concentration and sea level rise
  2. Improve the consistency between the treatment of climate in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and state-of-the-art global climate models, and assess the impact of this on policy
  3. Estimate alternative greenhouse gas emissions, concentrations, and forcing pathways that lead to similar SWLs, including clear narratives on aspects of the economic and technical feasibility of these pathways
  4. Calculate the effect on the timing of reaching specific climate targets of additional biogeochemical feedbacks not typically included in the current generation of complex Earth System Models (ESMs) or IAMs