For detailed regional impact assessment over Europe, Africa and Asia, existing data is being supplemented with regional climate simulations. The data draws from existing research, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). We will expand the available data with CMIP5 to a larger sample of available simulations and, for each Global Circulation Model (GCM) used. The resulting GCM ensemble will be the primary input to global scale impact assessments in HELIX.
A number of studies have investigated the benefits of increased model resolution in representing climate extremes, and we aim to provide a subset of GCM and Regional Climate Model (RCM) data targeted on the HELIX Specific Warming Levels that use significantly higher model resolution to better estimate potential future changes in extreme climate events.
To address the need for better information on future climate extremes, we will use two GCMs to generate high-resolution, 30-year global timeslices centred on the HELIX SWLs. Specific decisions on the time-periods and SWLs will be deferred until an initial assessment has been made and extensive consultation with stakeholders has occurred in the European and other Regional workshops. Sensitivity experiments will investigate the risk of large and abrupt changes in regional climate variability over the three HELIX Regions. These experiments will be designed using the high-resolution HELIX data. Results from these simulations will be used for Africa, Asia and Tipping Points WPs document risks to regional climate, socio-economic and ecosystem stability.
- To make available timeslices of global and regionally-specific simulated climate data for 2, 4 and 6°C global warming (SWLs) based on all available CMIP5 and CORDEX simulations, applying suitable bias-adjustment procedures where necessary
- To perform an ensemble of high-resolution, 30-year global timeslice climate simulations centred on the HELIX SWLs and provide impact-relevant data derived from these simulations, with bias adjustments as required, to support impact assessment work
- To dynamically downscale a selection of high-resolution global timeslices over Europe for detailed impact assessment
- To perform a number of global timeslice experiments to investigate the stability of key regional circulation systems and climate variability to plausible regional amplification of global climate change signals at the HELIX SWLs.