These publications arise from and cite the HELIX grant number of European Funding 603864


Mohammed, Khaled, A. K. M. S. Islam, G. M. T. Islam, L. Alfieri, S. K. Bala, J. U. Khan (2017) Impact of High-End Climate Change on Floods and Low Flows of the Brahmaputra River Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (ASCE) Volume 22, Issue doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001567


Lenton, Timothy M., V. Dakos, S. Bathiany, M Scheffer (2017) Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability Nature doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x


Williamson, Mark S., M. Collins, S. S. Drijfhout, R. Kahana, J. V. Mecking, T. M. Lenton (2017) Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model Climate Dynamics doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3756-0


Alfieri, L., B. Bisselink, F. Dottori, G. Naumann, A. de Roo, P. Salamon, K. Wyser, L. Feyen (2017) Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world Earth’s Future doi: 10.1002/2016EF000485


Vousdoukas M. I., L. Mentaschi, E. Voukouvalas, M. Verlaan, L. Feyen (2017) Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe’s coasts Earth’s Future Volume 5, Issue 3 doi: 10.1002/2016EF000505


Williams, K., J. Gornall, A. Harper, A. Wiltshire, D. Hemming, T. Quaife, T. Arkebauer, D. Scoby (2017) Evaluation of JULES-crop performance against site observations of irrigated maize from Mead, Nebraska Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 1291-1320, 2017. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017


Chang, J., P. Ciais, X. Wang, S. Piao, G. Asrar, R. Betts, F. Chevallier, M. Dury, L. François, K. Frieler, A. García Cantú Ros, AJ Henrot, T. Hickler, A. Ito, C. Morfopoulos, G. Munhoven, K. Nishina, S. Ostberg, S. Pan, S. Peng, R. Rafique, C. Reyer, C. Rödenbeck, S. Schaphoff, J. Steinkamp, H. Tian, N. Viovy, J. Yang, N. Zeng, F. Zhao Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models Special Issue Article in Environmental Research Letters. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Number 4


Bernhard Schauberger., Sotirios Archontoulis., Almut Arneth., Juraj Balkovic., Philippe Ciais., Delphine Deryng., Joshua Elliott., Christian Folberth., Nikolay Khabarov., Christoph Müller., Thomas A. M. Pugh., Susanne Rolinski., Sibyll Schaphoff., Erwin Schmid., Xuhui Wang., Wolfram Schlenker & Katja Frieler (2017) Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models Nature Communications 8, Article number: 13931 (2017) doi:10.1038/ncomms13931



Alfieri, L., L. Feyen and G. Di Baldassarre (2016). “Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies.” Climatic Change 136(3-4): 507-521. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1641-1


Anthoff, D., F. Estrada and R. S. J. Tol (2016). “Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation.” American Economic Review 106(5): 602-606. doi:10.1257/aer.p20161102


Alfieri, L., L. Feyen, P. Salamon, J. Thielen, A. Bianchi, F. Dottori and P. Burek (2016). “Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16(6): 1401-1411. doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016


Betts, R.A., C.D. Jones, J.R. Knight, R.F. Keeling and J.J. Kennedy (2016) “El Niño and a record CO2 rise.” Nature Climate Change 6, 806–810 (2016) doi:10.1038/nclimate3063


Carrao, H., G. Naumann and P. Barbosa (2016). “Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.” Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 39: 108-124. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.012


Chang, J. F., P. Ciais, M. Herrero, P. Havlik, M. Campioli, X. Z. Zhang, Y. F. Bai, N. Viovy, J. Joiner, X. H. Wang, S. S. Peng, C. Yue, S. L. Piao, T. Wang, D. A. Hauglustaine, J. F. Soussana, A. Peregon, N. Kosykh and N. Mironycheva-Tokareva (2016). “Combining livestock production information in a process-based vegetation model to reconstruct the history of grassland management.” Biogeosciences 13(12): 3757-3776. doi:10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016


Chang, J. F., P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, M. Herrero, P. Havlik, X. H. Wang, B. Sultan and J. F. Soussana (2016). “Effect of climate change, CO2 trends, nitrogen addition, and land-cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslands.” Global Change Biology 22(1): 338-350. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13050


Dottori, F., P. Salamon, A. Bianchi, L. Alfieri, F. A. Hirpa and L. Feyen (2016). “Development and evaluation of a framework for global flood hazard mapping.” Advances in Water Resources 94: 87-102. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.002


Lind, P., D. Lindstedt, E. Kjellstrom and C. Jones (2016). “Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Summer Precipitation over Central Europe in a Suite of High-Resolution Climate Models.” Journal of Climate 29(10): 3501-3518. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0463.1


Mengel, M., A. Levermann, K. Frieler, A. Robinson, B. Marzeion and R. Winkelmann (2016). “Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(10): 2597-2602. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1500515113


Osborn, T. J., C. J. Wallace, I. C. Harris and T. M. Melvin (2016). “Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation.” Climatic Change 134(3): 353-369. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9


Papadimitriou, L. V., A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis and I. K. Tsanis (2016). “High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(5): 1785-1808. doi:10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016


Papadimitriou, L. V., A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis and I. K. Tsanis (2016). “Hotspots of sensitivity to GCM biases in global modelling of mean and extreme runoff.” 1(36). doi:10.5194/hess-2016-547


Schleussner, C. F., T. K. Lissner, E. M. Fischer, J. Wohland, M. Perrette, A. Golly, J. Rogelj, K. Childers, J. Schewe, K. Frieler, M. Mengel, W. Hare and M. Schaeffer (2016). “Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C.” Earth System Dynamics 7(2): 327-351. doi:10.5194/esd-7-327-2016


Williamson, M. S., S. Bathiany and T. M. Lenton (2016). “Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems.” Earth System Dynamics 7(2): 313-326. doi:10.5194/esd-7-313-2016



Alfieri, L., P. Burek, L. Feyen and G. Forzieri (2015). “Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19(5): 2247-2260. doi:10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015


Alfieri, L., L. Feyen, F. Dottori and A. Bianchi (2015). “Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios.” Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 35: 199-212. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.004


Boulton, C. A. and T. M. Lenton (2015). “Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(37): 11496-11501. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1501781112


Chang, J. F., P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, B. Sultan and J. F. Soussana (2015). “The greenhouse gas balance of European grasslands.” Global Change Biology 21(10): 3748-3761. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12998


Feldmann, J. and A. Levermann (2015). “Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(46): 14191-14196. doi:10.1073/pnas.1512482112


Feldmann, J. and A. Levermann (2015). “Interaction of marine ice-sheet instabilities in two drainage basins: simple scaling of geometry and transition time.” Cryosphere 9(2): 631-645. doi:10.5194/tc-9-631-2015


Friedlingstein, P. (2015). “Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 373(2054). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0421


Frieler, K., A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Doll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen and H. J. Schellnhuber (2015). “A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties.” Earth System Dynamics 6(2): 447-460. doi:10.5194/esd-6-447-2015


Garcia-Carreras, L., A. J. Challinor, B. J. Parkes, C. E. Birch, K. J. Nicklin and D. J. Parker (2015). “The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 54(6): 1283-1296. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0226.1


Mathison, C., A. J. Wiltshire, P. Falloon and A. J. Challinor (2015). “South Asia river-flow projections and their implications for water resources.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19(12): 4783-4810. doi:10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015


Koutroulis, A. G. , M.G. Grillakis, I.K. Tsanis, L. Papadimitriou (2015). ‘Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation performance of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical experiments.’ Climate Dynamics 47(5): 1881–1898. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2938-x


Parkes, B., A. Challinor and K. Nicklin (2015). “Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening.” Environmental Research Letters 10(8). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084003


Peters, G. P., R. M. Andrew, S. Solomon and P. Friedlingstein (2015). “Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions.” Environmental Research Letters 10(10). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105004


Sillmann, J., T. M. Lenton, A. Levermann, K. Ott, M. Hulme, F. Benduhn and J. B. Horton (2015). “COMMENTARY: No emergency argument for climate engineering.” Nature Climate Change 5(4): 290-292. doi:10.1038/nclimate2539


Strauss, B. H., S. Kulp and A. Levermann (2015). “Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(44): 13508-13513. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1511186112


Wenz, L., S. N. Willner, A. Radebach, R. Bierkandt, J. C. Steckel and A. Levermann (2015). “REGIONAL AND SECTORAL DISAGGREGATION OF MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES – A FLEXIBLE ALGORITHM.” Economic Systems Research 27(2): 194-212. doi: 10.1080/09535314.2014.987731


Williamson, M. S. and T. M. Lenton (2015). “Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series.” Chaos 25(3). doi: 10.1063/1.4908603.


Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, K. Caldeira (2015). ‘Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet’. Science Advance 1(8). doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500589



Boulton, C. A., L. C. Allison and T. M. Lenton (2014). “Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.” Nature Communications 5. doi:10.1038/ncomms6752


Ehlert, D. and A. Levermann (2014). “Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse.” Earth System Dynamics 5(2): 383-397. doi:10.5194/esd-5-383-2014


Friedlingstein, P., R. M. Andrew, J. Rogelj, G. P. Peters, J. G. Canadell, R. Knutti, G. Luderer, M. R. Raupach, M. Schaeffer, D. P. van Vuuren and C. Le Quere (2014). “Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets.” Nature Geoscience 7(10): 709-715. doi:10.1038/ngeo2248


Latham, J., A. Gadian, J. Fournier, B. Parkes, P. Wadhams and J. Chen (2014). “Marine cloud brightening: regional applications.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 372(2031). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0053


Raupach, M. R., S. J. Davis, G. P. Peters, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, F. Jotzo, D. P. van Vuuren and C. Le Quere (2014). “Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions.” Nature Climate Change 4(10): 873-879. doi:10.1038/nclimate2384


Schleussner, C. F., A. Levermann and M. Meinshausen (2014). “Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning.” Climatic Change 127(3-4): 579-586. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2